Margin requirement for trading E-mini S&P 500 futures?
I've been paper trading on ToS for quite some time and I've made a consistent profit by scalping e-mini S&P 500 futures for 1 point. I'm looking to actually start trading with real money but I can't find a straight answer on what the initial margin requirement is. On ToS it says $13,200 but it varies elsewhere. However I only have $6000 to put down right now. Was all that paper trading a waste of time? I learned how e-minis move and now I can't even afford to put down the margin requirement. I'm considering e-micros but the volume is much lower and with service charges I don't think it's even worth it. I'm in Canada so we don't have the minimum $25,000 requirement. Does this affect the initial margin requirement? I feel like everything cheaper than e-minis will kill me with service charges.
My holding period is typically a few seconds to a few minutes. Trading only the NQ. I like to scale into longs on pullbacks, unless I sense a trending day is occurring. I sell quickly once I'm in the money, which I can definitely work on. Letting 1 contract run is not a bad way to improve. But, I would rather lock in a profit and wait for another setup then get trapped in a bad trade. Before entering a trade, I ask - am I likely to get trapped in this trade? That typically helps me avoid chasing big jumps. You want to be positioned before those happen. I haven't been setting stops and prefer to set mental stops. https://imgur.com/a/fTFJBVG
Hey guys i was thinking in the possibility of getting into sugar or something (with demo first obviously) but wanted to know if someone has done it and being profitable :) and your experience with that hehe
Looking for a retarded brokerage with poor risk management
Everybody telling me to buy long date puts. Why not just short the stock directly, and thus eliminate the time pressure? Sure, can't leverage so heavily, but also don't have to worry about when the drop happens, which is coming without a doubt. How much leverage does your brokerage allow while shorting SPY? I'm using IB, and their margin requirements are crazy high now. (30%) Looking for a more retarded brokerage, preferably with low margin rates.
(Bloomberg) — Syed Shah usually buys and sells stocks and currencies through his Interactive Brokers account, but he couldn’t resist trying his hand at some oil trading on April 20, the day prices plunged below zero for the first time ever. The day trader, working from his house in a Toronto suburb, figured he couldn’t lose as he spent $2,400 snapping up crude at $3.30 a barrel, and then 50 cents. Then came what looked like the deal of a lifetime: buying 212 futures contracts on West Texas Intermediate for an astonishing penny each. What he didn’t know was oil’s first trip into negative pricing had broken Interactive Brokers Group Inc. Its software couldn’t cope with that pesky minus sign, even though it was always technically possible — though this was an outlandish idea before the pandemic — for the crude market to go upside down. Crude was actually around negative $3.70 a barrel when Shah’s screen had it at 1 cent. Interactive Brokers never displayed a subzero price to him as oil kept diving to end the day at minus $37.63 a barrel. At midnight, Shah got the devastating news: he owed Interactive Brokers $9 million. He’d started the day with $77,000 in his account.
The Great Unwinding: Why WSB Will Keep Losing Their Tendies
I. The Death of Modern Portfolio Theory, The Loss of Risk Parity, & The Liquidity Crunch SPY 1 Y1 Day Modern portfolio theory has been based on the foundational idea for the past 3 decades that both equities and bonds are inversely correlated. However, as some people have realized, both stocks and bonds are both increasing in value and decreasing in value at the same time. This approach to investing is used pretty much in everyone's 401K, target date retirement plans, or other forms of passive investing. If both bonds and equities are losing value, what will happen to firms implementing these strategies on a more generalized basis known as risk-parity? Firms such as Bridgewater, Bluecrest, and H2O assets have been blowing up. [2,3] Liquidity has been drying up in the markets for the past two weeks. The liquidity crisis has been in the making since the 2008 financial crisis, after the passage of Dodd-Frank and Basel III. Regulations intended to regulate the financial industry have instead created the one of the largest backstops to Fed intervention as the Fed tried to pump liquidity into the market through repo operations. What is a repo?
A repo is a secured loan contract that is collateralized by a security. A repo transaction facilitates the sale and future repurchase of the security that serves as collateral between the two parties: (1) the borrower who owns a security and seeks cash and (2) the lender who receives the security as collateral when lending the cash. The cash borrower sells securities to the cash lender with the agreement to repurchase them at the maturity date. Over the course of the transaction, the cash borrower retains the ownership of the security. On the maturity date, the borrower returns the cash with interest to the lender and the collateral is returned from the lender to the borrower.
Banks like Bank of New York Mellon and JP Morgan Chase act as a clearing bank to provide this liquidity to other lenders through a triparty agreement. In short, existing regulations make it unfavorable to take on additional repos due to capital reserve requirement ratios, creating a liquidity crunch.[7,8,9] What has the Fed done to address this in light of these facts?
In light of the shift to an ample reserves regime, the Board has reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective on March 26, the beginning of the next reserve maintenance period.
II. Signs of Exhaustion & The Upcoming Bounce is a Trap, We Have Far More to Go A simple indicator to use is the relative strength index (RSI) that a lot of WSB is familiar with. RSI is not the be all and end all. There's tons of indicators that also are indicating we are at a very oversold point. SPY 1 Y1 Day RSI Given selling waves, there are areas of key support and resistance. For reference, I have not changed key lines since my original charts except for the colors. You can check in my previous posts. 247.94 has been critically an area that has been contested many times, as seen in the figure below. For those that bought calls during the witching day, RIP my fellow autists. The rejection of 247.94 and the continued selling below 233.86 signals to me more downside, albeit, it's getting exhausted. Thus, I expect the next area in which we start rallying is 213. SPY 10 Day/30 min Another contrarian indicator for buying calls is that notable people in finance have also closed their shorts. These include Jeffery Gundlach, Kevin Muir, and Raoul Pal.[11,12,13] III. The Dollar, Gold, and Oil As previously stated, cash is being hoarded by not only primary banks, but central banks around the world. This in turn has created a boom in the dollar's strength, despite limitless injections of cash (if you think 1 trillion of Repo is the ceiling, think again) by the Fed. DXY Despite being in a deflationary environment, the DXY has not achieved such levels since 2003. Given the dollar shortage around the world, it is not inconceivable that we reach levels of around 105-107. For disclosure, I have taken a long position in UUP. However, with all parabolic moves, they end in a large drop. To summarize, the Fed needs to take action on its own currency due to the havoc it's causing globally, and will need to crush the value of the dollar, which will likely coincide with the time that we near 180. If we are indeed headed towards 180, then gold will keep selling off. WSB literally screams bloody guhhhhhh when gold sells off. However, gold has been having an amazing run and has broken out of its long term channel. In times of distress and with margin calls, heavy selling of equities selling off of gold in order to raise cash. As previously noted, in this deflationary environment, everything is selling off from stocks, to bonds, to gold. /GC Futures Contracts 5 Y1 Wk What about oil? Given the fall out of the risk parity structure, I'm no longer using TLT inflows/outflows as an indicator. I've realized that energy is the economy. Closely following commodities such as light crude which follow supply and demand more closely have provided a much better leading indicator as to what will happen in equities. Given that, oil will also most likely hit a relief rally. But ultimately, we have seen it reach as low $19/barrel during intraday trading. /CL Futures Contracts 1 Y1 D IV. The Next 5 Years In short, the recovery from this deflationary environment will take years to recover from. The trend down will not be without large bumps. We cannot compare this on the scale of the 2008 financial crisis. This is on the order of 1929. Once we hit near 180, the Fed crushes the dollar, we are in a high likelihood of hitting increased inflation, or stagflation. At this point the Fed will be backed into a corner and forced to raise rates. My targets for gold are around 1250-1300. It may possibly go near to 1000. Oil could conceivably go as low as $15-17/barrel, so don't go all in on the recovery bounce. No matter what, the current rise in gold will be a trap. The continued selling in the S&P is a trap, will bounce, forming another trap, before continuing our painful downtrend. I haven't even mentioned coronavirus and unemployment until now. I've stated previously we are on track to hit around at least 10,000 coronavirus cases by the end of this month. It's looking closer to now 20-30,000. Next month we are looking to at least 100,000 by the end of the April. We might hit 1,000,000 by May or June. Comparison of the 2020 Decline to 1929 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Chart courtesy of Moon_buzz tl;dr We're going to have a major reflexive rally starting around 213, all the way back to at least to 250, and possibly 270. WSB is going to lose their minds holding their puts, and then load up on calls, declaring we've reached a bottom in the stock market. The next move will be put in place for the next leg down to 182, where certain actors will steal all your tendies on the way down. Also Monday might be another circuit breaker. tl;dr of tl;dr Big bounce incoming. Bear trap starting 213. Then bull trap up around 250-270. We're going down to around 182. tl;dr of tl;dr of tl;dr WSB will be screwed both left and right before they can say guh. Hint: If you want to get a Bloomberg article for free, hit esc repeatedly before the popup appears. If it doesn't work, refresh the article, and keep hitting esc. Remember, do not dance. We are on the cusp of a generational change. Use the money you earn to protect yourselves and others. Financial literacy and knowledge is the key to empowerment and self-change. Some good DD posts: u/bigd0g111 -https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fmshcv/when_market_bounce_inevitably_comesdont_scream/ u/scarvesandsuspenders - https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fmzu51/incoming_bounce_vix_puts/ Update 1 3/22/2020 - Limit down 3 minutes of futures. Likely hit -7% circuit breaker on the cash open on Monday at 213 as stated previously. Do not think we will hit the 2nd circuit breaker at 199.06. Thinking we bounce, not too much, but stabilize at least around 202.97. Update 2 3/23/20 9:08 - Watching the vote before making any moves. 9:40 - sold 25% of my SPY puts and 50% of my VXX calls 9:45 - sold another 50% of SPY puts 9:50 - just holding 25% SPY puts now and waiting for the vote/other developments 11:50 - Selling all puts. Starting my long position. 11:55 - Sold USO puts. 12:00 - Purchased VXX puts to vega hedge. 2:45 - Might sell calls EOD. Looks like a lot of positioning for another leg down before going back up. It's pretty common to shake things out in order to make people to sell positions. Just FYI, I do intraday trading. If you can't, just wait for EOD for the next positioning. 3:05 - Seeing a massive short on gold. Large amounts of calls on treasuries. And extremely large positioning for more shorts on SPY/SPX. Will flip into puts. Lot of people keep DM'ing me. I'm only going to do this once. https://preview.redd.it/uvs5tkje1ho41.png?width=2470&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6b632556ca04a26e4e08fb2c9223bfcb84e0901 That said, I'm going back into puts. Just goes to show how tricky the game is. 3:45 - As more shorts cover, going to sell the calls and then flip into puts around the last few min of close. Hope you guys made some money on the cover and got some puts. I'll write a short update later explaining how they set up tomorrow, especially with the VIX dropping so much. 3/24/20 - So the rally begins. Unfortunately misread the options volume. The clearest signal was the VIX dropping the past few days even though we kept swinging lower, which suggested that large gap downs were mostly over and the rally is getting started. Going to hold my puts since they are longer dated. Going to get a few short term calls to ride this wave. 10:20 - VIX still falling, possibility of a major short squeeze coming in if SPY breaks out over 238-239. 10:45 - Opened a small GLD short, late April expiration. 10:50 - Sold calls, just waiting, not sure if we break 238. If we go above 240, going back into calls. See room going to 247 or 269. Otherwise, going to start adding to my puts. https://preview.redd.it/ag5s0hccxmo41.png?width=2032&format=png&auto=webp&s=aad730db4164720483a8b60056243d6e4a8a0cab 11:10 - Averaging a little on my puts here. Again, difficult to time the entries. Do not recommend going all in at a single time. Still watching around 240 closely. 11:50 - Looks like it's closing. Still going to wait a little bit. 12:10 - Averaged down more puts. Have a little powder left, we'll see what happens for the rest of today and tomorrow. 2:40 - Closed positions, sitting on cash. Waiting to see what EOD holds. Really hard trading days. 3:00 - Last update. What I'm trying to do here posting some thoughts is for you guys to take a look at things and make some hypotheses before trading. Getting a lot of comments and replies complaining. If you're tailing, yes there is risk involved. I've mentioned sizing appropriately, and locking in profits. Those will help you get consistent gains. https://preview.redd.it/yktrcoazjpo41.png?width=1210&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d6f0272712a2d17d45e033273a369bc164e2477 Bounced off 10 year trendline at around 246, pretty close to 247. Unless we break through that the rally is over. Given that, could still see us going to 270. 3/25/20 - I wouldn't read too much into the early moves. Be careful of the shakeouts. Still long. Price target, 269. When does the month end? Why is that important? 12:45 - out calls. 12:50 - adding a tranche of SPY puts. Adding GLD puts. 1:00 est - saving rest of my dry powder to average if we still continue to 270. Think we drop off a cliff after the end of the quarter. Just a little humor... hedge funds and other market makers right now. 2:00pm - Keep an eye on TLT and VXX... 3:50pm - Retrace to the 10 yr trend line. Question is if we continue going down or bounce. So I'm going to explain again, haven't changed these lines. Check the charts from earlier. https://preview.redd.it/9qiqyndtivo41.png?width=1210&format=png&auto=webp&s=55cf84f2b9f5a8099adf8368d9f3034b0e3c4ae4 3/26/20 - Another retest of the 10 yr trendline. If it can go over and hold, can see us moving higher. 9:30 - Probably going to buy calls close to the open. Not too sure, seems like another trap setting up. Might instead load up on more puts later today. In terms of unemployment, was expecting close to double. Data doesn't seem to line up. That's why we're bouncing. California reported 1 million yesterday alone, and unemployment estimates were 1.6 million? Sure. Waiting a little to see the price action first. Treasuries increasing and oil going down? 9:47 - Added more to GLD puts. 10:11 - Adding more SPY puts and IWM puts. 10:21 - Adding more puts. 11:37 - Relax guys, this move has been expected. Take care of yourselves. Eat something, take a walk. Play some video games. Don't stare at a chart all day. If you have some family or close friends, advise them not to buy into this rally. I've had my immediate family cash out or switch today into Treasury bonds/TIPS. 2:55pm - https://youtu.be/S74rvpc6W60?t=9 3:12pm - Hedge funds and their algos right now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZF_nUm982vI 4:00pm - Don't doubt your vibe. For those that keep asking about my vibe... yes, we could hit 270. I literally said we could hit 270 when we were at 218. There was a lot of doubt. Just sort by best and look at the comments. Can we go to 180 from 270? Yes. I mentioned that EOM is important. Here's another prediction. VIX will hit ATH again. 2:55pm EST - For DM's chat is not working now. Will try to get back later tonight. Stream today for those who missed it, 2:20-4:25 - https://www.twitch.tv/videos/576598992 Thanks again to WallStreetBooyah and all the others for making this possible. 9:10pm EST Twitter handles (updated) https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fmhz1p/the_great_unwinding_why_wsb_will_keep_losing/floyrbf/?context=3, thanks blind_guy Not an exhaustive list. Just to get started. Follow the people they follow. Dark pool and gamma exposure - https://squeezemetrics.com/monitodix Wyckoff - https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method MacroVoices Investopedia for a lot. Also links above in my post. lol... love you guys. Please be super respectful on FinTwit. These guys are incredibly helpful and intelligent, and could easily just stop posting content.
Hi, as a newb ive been looking more and more into learning how to trade futures, and ive come to the information of Micro E-Mini futures contracts. Since im just a begginer trader, im planning to start, just to get my feet wet, with trading micro e mini contracts, as the contracts are very small and very low risk, then from there move on to trading E-Minis and regular stocks. My question is, why do so much people recommend and like the platform Ninja trader for trading futures? I actually have Think or Swim platform and i believe you can trade just fine futures there as well if im not mistaken? Isnt the only difference between them two is that Ninjatrader doesnt requeire the minimum 5k to start trading? is it true that just with 500-600$ you can open and start trading an account with Ninjatrader? this would be the only "benefitial difference" right?
What has Trump actually done? I've done some research...
A little about myself: I have always been a right-leaning financially conservative liberal. Meaning I'm all for newer technologies. I want solar energy, electric cars, auto-driving technologies (Love Musk). I do care about our environment. I do believe LGBT relationships/marriage is awesome. I'm all for Black people having their fair style of policing as well. I hate Nazis, hate Communists, hate racism, sexism, abuse, etc. I hate hate. I love LOVE! I want our government to be LESS controlling and want less taxes. I do NOT believe we should be handing out welfare checks unless IF needed (you just lost a job, sure). If you are sitting on welfare for 10 years....that becomes a problem. I look at BOTH SIDES. I've signed up for newsletters/emails/facebook/twitter groups from both sides. However I've seen that the left has become a socialist groupthink mindset, for example omitting the word God in a few speeches....It's not a BIG deal but small unnoticed details may lead to big overhauls. The censorships of channels, the media attacking conservatives, people getting fired for just having a different political opinion...are you kidding me?? The media turning a blind eye to destruction yet talk about Coronavirus numbers and criminals that are resisting arrest get shot as the cop's fault...however we do need more police training. Cops are aggressive here (I do agree with my liberal friends on that). The double standard: letting people protest for BLM but when the Conservatives tried to protest to go back to work, at the beginning in March/April, they were at fault. Or how CA Gov Newsom stated "You're allowed to protest, but not allowed to have social gatherings"....isn't a protest a type of social gathering. I don't like to be biased, but holy crap how much I've found what Trump has done for the past 3.5 years is insane!! My point is I look at both sides for politics. Anyways, I decided to do a full day's work with the help of some people to compile a list:
Trump recently signed 3 bills to benefit Native people. One gives compensation to the Spokane tribe for loss of their lands in the mid-1900s, one funds Native language programs, and the third gives federal recognition to the Little Shell Tribe of Chippewa Indians in Montana.
Trump finalized the creation of Space Force as our 6th Military branch.
Trump signed a law to make cruelty to animals a federal felony so that animal abusers face tougher consequences.
Violent crime has fallen every year he’s been in office after rising during the 2 years before he was elected.
Trump signed a bill making CBD and Hemp legal.
Trump’s EPA gave $100 million to fix the water infrastructure problem in Flint, Michigan.
Under Trump’s leadership, in 2018 the U.S. surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest producer of crude oil.
Trump signed a law ending the gag orders on Pharmacists that prevented them from sharing money-saving information.
Trump signed the “Allow States and Victims to Fight Online Sex Trafficking Act” (FOSTA), which includes the “Stop Enabling Sex Traffickers Act” (SESTA) which both give law enforcement and victims new tools to fight sex trafficking.
Trump signed a bill to require airports to provide spaces for breastfeeding Moms.
The 25% lowest-paid Americans enjoyed a 4.5% income boost in November 2019, which outpaces a 2.9% gain in earnings for the country's highest-paid workers.
Low-wage workers are benefiting from higher minimum wages and from corporations that are increasing entry-level pay.
Trump signed the biggest wilderness protection & conservation bill in a decade and designated 375,000 acres as protected land.
Trump signed the Save our Seas Act which funds $10 million per year to clean tons of plastic & garbage from the ocean.
He signed a bill this year allowing some drug imports from Canada so that prescription prices would go down.
Trump signed an executive order this year that forces all healthcare providers to disclose the cost of their services so that Americans can comparison shop and know how much less providers charge insurance companies.
When signing that bill he said no American should be blindsided by bills for medical services they never agreed to in advance.
Hospitals will now be required to post their standard charges for services, which include the discounted price a hospital is willing to accept.
In the eight years prior to President Trump’s inauguration, prescription drug prices increased by an average of 3.6% per year. Under Trump, drug prices have seen year-over-year declines in nine of the last ten months, with a 1.1% drop as of the most recent month.
He created a White House VA Hotline to help veterans and principally staffed it with veterans and direct family members of veterans.
VA employees are being held accountable for poor performance, with more than 4,000 VA employees removed, demoted, and suspended so far.
Issued an executive order requiring the Secretaries of Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs to submit a joint plan to provide veterans access to access to mental health treatment as they transition to civilian life.
Because of a bill signed and championed by Trump, In 2020, most federal employees will see their pay increase by an average of 3.1% — the largest raise in more than 10 years.
Trump signed into a law up to 12 weeks of paid parental leave for millions of federal workers.
Trump administration will provide HIV prevention drugs for free to 200,000 uninsured patients per year for 11 years.
All-time record sales during the 2019 holidays.
Trump signed an order allowing small businesses to group together when buying insurance to get a better price
President Trump signed the Preventing Maternal Deaths Act that provides funding for states to develop maternal mortality reviews to better understand maternal complications and identify solutions & largely focuses on reducing the higher mortality rates for Black Americans.
In 2018, President Trump signed the groundbreaking First Step Act, a criminal justice bill which enacted reforms that make our justice system fairer and help former inmates successfully return to society.
The First Step Act’s reforms addressed inequities in sentencing laws that disproportionately harmed Black Americans and reformed mandatory minimums that created unfair outcomes.
The First Step Act expanded judicial discretion in sentencing of non-violent crimes.
Over 90% of those benefitting from the retroactive sentencing reductions in the First Step Act are Black Americans.
The First Step Act provides rehabilitative programs to inmates, helping them successfully rejoin society and not return to crime.
Trump increased funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) by more than 14%.
Trump signed legislation forgiving Hurricane Katrina debt that threatened HBCUs.
New single-family home sales are up 31.6% in October 2019 compared to just one year ago.
Made HBCUs a priority by creating the position of executive director of the White House Initiative on HBCUs.
Trump received the Bipartisan Justice Award at a historically black college for his criminal justice reform accomplishments.
The poverty rate fell to a 17-year low of 11.8% under the Trump administration as a result of a jobs-rich environment.
Poverty rates for African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans have reached their lowest levels since the U.S. began collecting such data.
President Trump signed a bill that creates five national monuments, expands several national parks, adds 1.3 million acres of wilderness, and permanently reauthorizes the Land and Water Conservation Fund.
Trump’s USDA committed $124 Million to rebuild rural water infrastructure.
Consumer confidence & small business confidence is at an all-time high.
More than 7 million jobs created since election.
More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
More than 400,000 manufacturing jobs created since his election.
Trump appointed 5 openly gay ambassadors.
Trump ordered Ric Grenell, his openly gay ambassador to Germany, to lead a global initiative to decriminalize homosexuality across the globe.
Through Trump’s Anti-Trafficking Coordination Team (ACTeam) initiative, Federal law enforcement more than doubled convictions of human traffickers and increased the number of defendants charged by 75% in ACTeam districts.
In 2018, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismantled an organization that was the internet’s leading source of prostitution-related advertisements resulting in sex trafficking.
Trump’s OMB published new anti-trafficking guidance for government procurement officials to more effectively combat human trafficking.
Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s Homeland Security Investigations arrested 1,588 criminals associated with Human Trafficking.
Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services provided funding to support the National Human Trafficking Hotline to identify perpetrators and give victims the help they need.
The hotline identified 16,862 potential human trafficking cases.
Trump’s DOJ provided grants to organizations that support human trafficking victims – serving nearly 9,000 cases from July 1, 2017, to June 30, 2018.
The Department of Homeland Security has hired more victim assistance specialists, helping victims get resources and support.
President Trump has called on Congress to pass school choice legislation so that no child is trapped in a failing school because of his or her zip code.
The President signed funding legislation in September 2018 that increased funding for school choice by $42 million.
The tax cuts signed into law by President Trump promote school choice by allowing families to use 529 college savings plans for elementary and secondary education.
Under his leadership ISIS has lost most of their territory and been largely dismantled.
ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was killed.
Signed the first Perkins CTE reauthorization since 2006, authorizing more than $1 billion for states each year to fund vocational and career education programs.
Executive order expanding apprenticeship opportunities for students and workers.
Trump issued an Executive Order prohibiting the U.S. government from discriminating against Christians or punishing expressions of faith.
Signed an executive order that allows the government to withhold money from college campuses deemed to be anti-Semitic and who fail to combat anti-Semitism.
President Trump ordered a halt to U.S. tax money going to international organizations that fund or perform abortions.
Trump imposed sanctions on the socialists in Venezuela who have killed their citizens.
Finalized new trade agreement with South Korea.
Made a deal with the European Union to increase U.S. energy exports to Europe.
Withdrew the U.S. from the job killing TPP deal.
Secured $250 billion in new trade and investment deals in China and $12 billion in Vietnam.
Okay’ d up to $12 billion in aid for farmers affected by unfair trade retaliation.
Has had over a dozen US hostages freed, including those Obama could not get freed.
Trump signed the Music Modernization Act, the biggest change to copyright law in decades.
Trump secured Billions that will fund the building of a wall at our southern border.
The Trump Administration is promoting second chance hiring to give former inmates the opportunity to live crime-free lives and find meaningful employment.
Trump’s DOJ and the Board Of Prisons launched a new “Ready to Work Initiative” to help connect employers directly with former prisoners.
President Trump’s historic tax cut legislation included new Opportunity Zone Incentives to promote investment in low-income communities across the country.
8,764 communities across the country have been designated as Opportunity Zones.
Opportunity Zones are expected to spur $100 billion in long-term private capital investment in economically distressed communities across the country.
Trump directed the Education Secretary to end Common Core.
Trump signed the 9/11 Victims Compensation Fund into law.
Trump signed measure funding prevention programs for Veteran suicide.
Companies have brought back over a TRILLION dollars from overseas because of the TCJA bill that Trump signed.
Manufacturing jobs are growing at the fastest rate in more than 30 years.
Stock Market has reached record highs.
Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded.
African-American unemployment is at an all-time low.(was until Covid bullshit)
Hispanic-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
Asian-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
Women’s unemployment rate is at a 65-year low.
Youth unemployment is at a 50-year low.
We have the lowest unemployment rate ever recorded.
The Pledge to America’s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans.
95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future— the highest ever.
As a result of the Republican tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
Record number of regulations eliminated that hurt small businesses.
Signed welfare reform requiring able-bodied adults who don’t have children to work or look for work if they’re on welfare.
Under Trump, the FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history.
Reformed Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs—saving seniors 100’s of millions of $$$ this year alone.
Signed Right-To-Try legislation allowing terminally ill patients to try experimental treatment that wasn’t allowed before.
Secured $6 billion in new funding to fight the opioid epidemic.
Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care.
U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high so we are less dependent on oil from the Middle East.
The U.S. is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957.
NATO allies increased their defense spending because of his pressure campaign.
Withdrew the United States from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord in 2017 and that same year the U.S. still led the world by having the largest reduction in Carbon emissions.
Has his circuit court judge nominees being confirmed faster than any other new administration.
Had his Supreme Court Justice’s Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh confirmed.
Moved U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
Agreed to a new trade deal with Mexico & Canada that will increase jobs here and $$$ coming in.
Reached a breakthrough agreement with the E.U. to increase U.S. exports.
Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices, has agreed to a Part One trade deal with China.
Signed legislation to improve the National Suicide Hotline.
Signed the most comprehensive childhood cancer legislation ever into law, which will advance childhood cancer research and improve treatments.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed into law by Trump doubled the maximum amount of the child tax credit available to parents and lifted the income limits so more people could claim it.
It also created a new tax credit for other dependents.
In 2018, President Trump signed into law a $2.4 billion funding increase for the Child Care and Development Fund, providing a total of $8.1 billion to States to fund child care for low-income families.
The Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC) signed into law by Trump provides a tax credit equal to 20-35% of child care expenses, $3,000 per child & $6,000 per family + Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) allow you to set aside up to $5,000 in pre-tax $ to use for child care.
In 2019 President Donald Trump signed the Autism Collaboration, Accountability, Research, Education and Support Act (CARES) into law which allocates $1.8 billion in funding over the next five years to help people with autism spectrum disorder and to help their families.
In 2019 President Trump signed into law two funding packages providing nearly $19 million in new funding for Lupus specific research and education programs, as well an additional $41.7 billion in funding for the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the most Lupus funding EVER.
Another upcoming accomplishment to add: In the next week or two Trump will be signing the first major anti-robocall law in decades called the TRACED Act (Telephone Robocall Abuse Criminal Enforcement and Deterrence.) Once it’s the law, the TRACED Act will extend the period of time the FCC has to catch & punish those who intentionally break telemarketing restrictions. The bill also requires voice service providers to develop a framework to verify calls are legitimate before they reach your phone.
Israel-UAE peace. More Muslim countries (Countries such as Oman, Morocco, Sudan, Lebanon) said they may follow. Last time Israel and a Muslim country normalized ties was 26 years ago.
US stock market continually hits all-time record highs.
Note: I would like to also add that this list will obviously be very similar to other lists if not the same, since these are facts and not really opinions. I may have missed some stuff or duplicated a few things. Sorry about that. Please let me know if you have anything to add. Thanks for reading! Edit: I just want to clarify I’m not a Trump Supporter. I actually voted for Bernie in 2016. Even in 2016, I’ve wanted someone against the establishment. I did not like most of what Obama has done and still don’t. I really just wanted to see what Trump has done over his term after my mom was like “It virtually doesn’t matter who becomes president. I just want stability.” I just can’t vote for socialistic ideologies and the allowable riots/looting. Someone we know has Black bums living in their bought Chicago apt and because of Mayor Lightfoot’s “racial political correctness” directions, cops don’t want to get involved/kick them out and told them to go to court-which can take up to 8 months of waiting....WHERE are they supposed to live? These liberals don’t know how to run their states or cities.
So I recently discovered indexfuturesoptions. Naturally, this got me thinking. So we're all on the same page here, the S&P 500 e-mini index futures contract (/ES) is a cash-settled futures contract tracking the S&P 500 index, and trades at a notional value of $50 per index point (close today was 3267.75 x $50 = $163,387.50), 22.5 hours per day, 5 days per week. Being a highly leveraged product, your initial margin requirement is only $6600 and maintenance margin is $6000, so you're looking at roughly 27X leverage. Spicy. Now, here's where things get interesting. There are /ES index futures options (FOP) contracts that expire three times per week (M, W, F). Calls and puts, the usual. Each /ES FOP contract covers the price action on one (not 100) /ES contracts, so that's pretty straight-forward. Premiums are good, IV is very high, and liquidity is good. At the money /ES FOPs expiring two days later (W on M, F on W, M on F) are pretty consistently 15-25 points (x$50 = $750-$1250 in premium). /ES futures are cash settled and /ES FOPs are cash futures contract settled; no dividends, and best of all, taxed at a rate of 60% short term gains, 40% long term gains even if your trade lasts seconds. (https://greentradertax.com/trader-tax-centetax-treatment/section-1256-contracts/) So, ladies, gentlemen, I present to you, the wheel. But like, a race car wheel.
Sell an at-the-money /ES FOP put expiring Wednesday.
If the index is over your strike...
If the index is under your strike...
You get assigned an /ES future.
Sell a covered /ES future call, expiring Friday. Collect premium.
Repeat until you get assigned on your call, and your /ES future is called away.
So how well does this work? Market's been pretty flat, and I've done this consistently for the last 6 weeks. Currently my total realized proceeds are ~$12000 on a single /ES-FOP pair wheel. Risk: See March. Rewards:
Under current market conditions with high IV and a pretty tight range (319X-329X), it works pretty well.
Currently minting me $2000 per week for the last 6 weeks.
Low margin costs while holding the /ES future.
60-40 ("Section 1256") tax treatment for some reason.
Long trading hours.
Lots of expirations (MWF) means lots of opportunity to re-up.
Due to long trading hours and high liquidity, you can control your exposure pretty well with a stop-loss.
WARNING: This is playing with live rounds, and there is $160K at risk. You may find yourself holding an ES contract for a long time if we see another economic disaster, or an extension of this one. Prepare yourselves, and make sure you know what you're getting into before joining me on this coke-fueled theta gang adventure. With that in mind, I'm making a trading bot to automate this lol.
Factset: How You can Invest in Hedge Funds’ Biggest Investment Tl;dr FactSet is the most undervalued widespread SaaS/IT solution stock that exists If any of you have relevant experience or are friends with people in Investment Banking/other high finance, you know that Factset is the lifeblood of their financial analysis toolkit if and when it’s not Bloomberg, which isn’t even publicly traded. Factset has been around since 1978 and it’s considered a staple like Bloomberg in many wealth management firms, and it offers some of the easiest to access and understandable financial data so many newer firms focused less on trading are switching to Factset because it has a lot of the same data Bloomberg offers for half the cost. When it comes to modern financial data, Factset outcompetes Reuters and arguably Bloomberg as well due to their API services which makes Factset much more preferable for quantitative divisions of banks/hedge funds as API integration with Python/R is the most important factor for vast data lakes of financial data, this suggests Factset will be much more prepared for programming making its way into traditional finance fields. According to Factset, their mission for data delivery is to: “Integrate the data you need with your applications, web portals, and statistical packages. Whether you need market, company, or alternative data, FactSet flexible data delivery services give you normalized data through APIs and a direct delivery of local copies of standard data feeds. Our unique symbology links and aggregates a variety of content sources to ensure consistency, transparency, and data integrity across your business. Build financial models and power customized applications with FactSet APIs in our developer portal”. Their technical focus for their data delivery system alone should make it stand out compared to Bloomberg, whose UI is far more outdated and complex on top of not being as technically developed as Factset’s. Factset is the key provider of buy-side portfolio analysis for IBs, Hedge funds, and Private Equity firms, and it’s making its way into non-quantitative hedge funds as well because quantitative portfolio management makes automation of risk management and the application of portfolio theory so much easier, and to top it off, Factset’s scenario analysis and simulation is unique in its class. Factset also is able to automate trades based on individual manager risk tolerance and ML optimization for Forex trading as well. Not only does Factset provide solutions for financial companies, they are branching out to all corporations now and providing quantitative analytics for them in the areas of “corporate development, M&A, strategy, treasury, financial planning and analysis, and investor relations workflows”. Factset will eventually in my opinion reach out to Insurance Risk Management a lot more in the future as that’s a huge industry which has yet to see much automation of risk management yet, and with the field wide open, Factset will be the first to take advantage without a shadow of a doubt. So let’s dig into the company’s financials now: Their latest 8k filing reported the following: Revenue increased 2.6%, or $9.6 million, to $374.1 million compared with $364.5 million for the same period in fiscal 2019. The increase is primarily due to higher sales of analytics, content and technology solutions (CTS) and wealth management solutions. Annual Subscription Value (ASV) plus professional services was $1.52 billion at May 31, 2020, compared with $1.45 billion at May 31, 2019. The organic growth rate, which excludes the effects of acquisitions, dispositions, and foreign currency movements, was 5.0%. The primary contributors to this growth rate were higher sales in FactSet's wealth and research workflow solutions and a price increase in the Company's international region Adjusted operating margin improved to 35.5% compared with 34.0% in the prior year period primarily as a result of reduced employee-related operating expenses due to the coronavirus pandemic. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased 11.0% to $2.63 compared with $2.37 for the same period in fiscal 2019. Adjusted diluted EPS rose 9.2% to $2.86 compared with $2.62 in the prior year period primarily driven by an improvement in operating results. The Company’s effective tax rate for the third quarter decreased to 15.0% compared with 18.6% a year ago, primarily due to an income tax expense in the prior year related to finalizing the Company's tax returns with no similar event for the three months ended May 31, 2020. FactSet increased its quarterly dividend by $0.05 per share or 7% to $0.77 marking the fifteenth consecutive year the Company has increased dividends, highlighting its continued commitment to returning value to shareholders. As you can see, there’s not much of a negative sign in sight here. It makes sense considering how FactSet’s FCF has never slowed down: https://preview.redd.it/frmtdk8e9hk51.png?width=276&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c0ff12539e0b2f9dbfda13d0565c5ce2b6f8f1a https://preview.redd.it/6axdb6lh9hk51.png?width=593&format=png&auto=webp&s=9af1673272a5a2d8df28f60f4707e948a00e5ff1 FactSet’s annual subscriptions and professional services have made its way to foreign and developing markets, and many of them are opting for FactSet’s cheaper services to reduce costs and still get copious amounts of data and models to work with. Here’s what FactSet had to say regarding its competitive position within the market of providing financial data in its last 10k: “Despite competing products and services, we enjoy high barriers to entry and believe it would be difficult for another vendor to quickly replicate the extensive databases we currently offer. Through our in-depth analytics and client service, we believe we can offer clients a more comprehensive solution with one of the broadest sets of functionalities, through a desktop or mobile user interface or through a standardized or bespoke data feed.” And FactSet is confident that their ML services cannot be replaced by anybody else in the industry either: “In addition, our applications, including our client support and service offerings, are entrenched in the workflow of many financial professionals given the downloading functions and portfolio analysis/screening capabilities offered. We are entrusted with significant amounts of our clients' own proprietary data, including portfolio holdings. As a result, our products have become central to our clients’ investment analysis and decision-making.” (https://last10k.com/sec-filings/fds#link_fullReport), if you read the full report and compare it to the most recent 8K, you’ll find that the real expenses this quarter were far lower than expected by the last 10k as there was a lower than expected tax rate and a 3% increase in expected operating margin from the expected figure as well. The company also reports a 90% customer retention rate over 15 years, so you know that they’re not lying when they say the clients need them for all sorts of financial data whether it’s for M&A or wealth management and Equity analysis: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/factset.asp https://preview.redd.it/yo71y6qj9hk51.png?width=355&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9414bdaa03c06114ca052304a26fae2773c3e45 FactSet also has remarkably good cash conversion considering it’s a subscription based company, a company structure which usually takes on too much leverage. Speaking of leverage, FDS had taken on a lot of leverage in 2015: https://preview.redd.it/oxaa1wel9hk51.png?width=443&format=png&auto=webp&s=13d60d2518980360c403364f7150392ab83d07d7 So what’s that about? Why were FactSet’s long term debts at 0 and all of a sudden why’d the spike up? Well usually for a company that’s non-cyclical and has a well-established product (like FactSet) leverage can actually be good at amplifying returns, so FDS used this to their advantage and this was able to help the share’s price during 2015. Also, as you can see debt/ebitda is beginning a rapid decline anyway. This only adds to my theory that FactSet is trying to expand into new playing fields. FactSet obviously didn’t need the leverage to cover their normal costs, because they have always had consistently growing margins and revenue so the debt financing was only for the sake of financing growth. And this debt can be considered covered and paid off, considering the net income growth of 32% between 2018 and 2019 alone and the EPS growth of 33% https://preview.redd.it/e4trju3p9hk51.png?width=387&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f6bee15f836c47e73121054ec60459f147d353e EBITDA has virtually been exponential for FactSet for a while because of the bang-for-buck for their well-known product, but now as FactSet ventures into algorithmic trading and corporate development the scope for growth is broadly expanded. https://preview.redd.it/yl7f58tr9hk51.png?width=489&format=png&auto=webp&s=68906b9ecbcf6d886393c4ff40f81bdecab9e9fd P/E has declined in the past 2 years, making it a great time to buy. https://preview.redd.it/4mqw3t4t9hk51.png?width=445&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8d719f4913883b044c4150f11b8732e14797b6d Increasing ROE despite lowering of leverage post 2016 https://preview.redd.it/lt34avzu9hk51.png?width=441&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3742ed87cd1c2ccb7a3d3ee71ae8c7007313b2b Mountains of cash have been piling up in the coffers increasing chances of increased dividends for shareholders (imo dividend is too low right now, but increasing it will tempt more investors into it), and on top of that in the last 10k a large buyback expansion program was implemented for $210m worth of shares, which shows how confident they are in the company itself. https://preview.redd.it/fliirmpx9hk51.png?width=370&format=png&auto=webp&s=1216eddeadb4f84c8f4f48692a2f962ba2f1e848 SGA expense/Gross profit has been declining despite expansion of offices I’m a bit concerned about the skin in the game leadership has in this company, since very few executives/board members have significant holdings in the company, but the CEO himself is a FactSet veteran, and knows his way around the company. On top of that, Bloomberg remains king for trading and the fixed income security market, and Reuters beats out FactSet here as well. If FactSet really wants to increase cash flow sources, the expansion into insurance and corp dev has to be successful. Summary: FactSet has a lot of growth still left in its industry which is already fast-growing in and of itself, and it only has more potential at its current valuation. Earnings September 24th should be a massive beat due to investment banking demand and growth plus Hedge fund requirements for data and portfolio management hasn’t gone anywhere and has likely increased due to more market opportunities to buy-in. Calls have shitty greeks, but if you're ballsy October 450s LOL, I'm holding shares I’d say it’s a great long term investment, and it should at least be on your watchlist.
This is my first DD. I feel really good about it. I’m just your average investotradegambler, but do like to dig deep, and think I found something here. Let's go. TL;DR Buy AXDX calls. July/Aug/Nov exp. 15-20 strikes. Shoot for 25 for max tendies. Go long AXDX shares on margin, too. Why?
Experienced investor with an awesome track record of winning as a shareholder (and fighting for shareholder value) recently showed showing extreme confidence in the company ($25MM buy)
They are gonna get $ from COVID testing revenues incoming which were not expected in their business plans at all (and this is a relatively low rev company, so the boost will look great)
EUA for the tests < 2 weeks away from being announced - we have evidence from other applications that it should be any time now
Besides all that, everything on track with their normal core business and it shouldn't be much affected by COVD
Now, for the real story... It started with a LARGE buy that caught my eye Actually, a series of buys from Jack Schuler. Schuler has spent over 30 years in the pharmaceutical industry, including having served as President and Chief Operating Officer of Abbott Laboratories. Today, Mr. Schuler serves on the board of directors for several companies, including Accelerate Diagnostics, Quidel Corporation and Biodesix, Inc. I'll do the math for you: that's $26.7MM of stock purchased during this dip. OK, so insider sales don't mean everything? We don't panic when we see selling because sometimes people just need to cash out. So we cannot just assume this means anything. Can we? Looking back at Jack's buying history - this was a v big buy for Jack Looking back, Schuler is quite active in investing in his companies. But it's not always buys, he does sell. And if you look further back, you actually see some interesting things. Starting with AXDX: Before the buys shown above, the last time Jack made a slew of purchases was between Aug 11 2017 and May 15 2018 when he purchased $29MM total. Note that this was over the course of a year for an average price of about $20 a share. Prior to those buys, you have to go back to Jan 2017 before he made any other bets. In other words, Jack just bought as much stock in the last few months than he'd bought in the previous few years. So it seems like Jack feels really good about buying this dip. Is that enough? Probably... but let's keep going. Jack has been around the block - and Jack likes winning (Jack gets top $ for Ventana) He's been quite successful in being an activist that fights for his shareholders. That is a great thing if you are in investor. I managed to stumble across this gem: Jack Schuler historical record of 'dirty tricks' in business. It's truly amazing. It's some dude's salty manifesto about how Jack S is a actually just a bad ass investor. Back in 2007, Roche wanted to buy Ventana who Jack was an investor in. He has big problems with the initial price that was offered and slowed down the deal. Here's what he said:
"This is about stockholder value," said Ventana chairman Jack Schuler. "Simply put, we believe that Roche is trying to capture value for its stockholders that rightly belongs to Ventana's stockholders." Ironically, as Roche was hailing its offer as a 44% premium on Ventana's stock value of $51.95 on June 22, 2007 (the last trading day before Roche submitted its bid to Ventana), the stock has steadily risen to a recent close of more than $83.
Preach! He's not playing dirty tricks. He wants shareholder value. What's wrong with that? Long story short, the deal was hung up because Jack needed all of his tendies. It eventually went through at a 19.3% premium to Roche's initial offer on June 27, 2007. Well done, Jack! I'd certainly want him to negotiate 20% more for my shares. Turns out Jack has a history of winning - Jack wins with Stericycle, Medtronic, and more Digging deeper, Jack (and John Patience, the same one from the screenshot below) did the same trick with Stericycle. The buys referenced in this article were unloaded 4-5 years later for 80-100% profits. He also did it with Medtronic in 2010. He picked up 30,000 shares at an average price of $36.93 each on June 25. Medtronic is at $93 today ($115 pre-covid) and pays a dividend. That ones seems to have worked out too. He has other winners too. Jack. Is. A. Winner. Isthatenough? Honestly, for you degens, yeah it should be. Jack has a strong track record. He thinks $10 is way too cheap, so he just bought an assload. Also, we know he doesn't hate money. A man like that never starts to hate money. Did I say a COVID tailwind? Yup. Did I mention that they have a COVID tailwind? I shit you not. It keeps getting better. You know the serology tests that determine if you've had CV? That test for antibodies? Well, turns out AXDX was perfectly set up to capitalize because they can make these. And they are planning to do so! On top of a slow and steady growth of sales of medical devices, which is AXDX's core business, AXDX can monetize on these tests which will be really important in the coming year as the world learns how to live with COVID (knowing who has had the disease is very important). From the CEO on the earnings call in May:
Lastly, through a recently signed collaboration agreement with BioCheck Ltd, we have begun commercializing the MS-FAST fully automated chemiluminescence immunoassay analyzer and SARS-COV-2 test for the detection of IgG and IgM. This partnership has the potential to provide both an avenue to reengage prospective customers on Pheno as well as a near-term revenue uplift. The performance data for these assays are best-in-class with sensitivity and specificity estimated as exceeding 95% for both assays based on over 100 samples collected at the source of the pandemic, Wuhan, China. Since announcing the partnership on April 15, we have received several indications of interest across the global business. We are continuing to work with the FDA on our emergency use authorization for commercialization in the U.S., and we have taken initial orders in EMEA. While we are tremendously excited about this collaboration agreement and are eager to play a role in fighting this pandemic, it remains too early to estimate the revenue potential of this opportunity. In my 30 years in diagnostics, I have never experienced a period of such profound disruption. However, with this disruption comes the creation of new opportunities, the near-term impact from this pandemic to accelerate and most other healthcare companies is significant while at the same time shining a brighter light on the value of rapid diagnostics for infectious disease.
Awesome! So, we are stumbling into quite a bit revenue we were not expecting. That's dope. More good news? Yup. The CEO references that their core product (Pheno) now has advantages due to COVID that will help future sales:
And a big part of this will be, in my opinion, will be around how do you better manage infectious disease crises, how do you better manage secondary infections, how do you better manage bed utilization and staff utilization? And those are all things that Pheno directly addresses. I mean Pheno gets patients on optimal therapy much, much quicker, two, three days quicker, and get patients out of the hospital two to five days quicker in some cases. And so with that, I mean, as healthcare providers look at these things, I mean, we fully expect them to be really having a heightened sense of interest in what we're doing in this space.
I suspect that others noticed what I have noticed, so it's been up up an away.
This week was especially bonkers. Up 5-10% most days. Never seen action like it.
But notice that today was a BIG DOWN day after 6 in a row up. It had to cool off. Maybe it cools off more Monday...? It will have reasons to go up soon that have not yet materialized (more below)
I see no reason why we wouldn't be headed back to ranges that it was safely in last year... especially with the tailwinds due to testing revenue, Jack S's confidence, and the recovery of markets (though AXDX is hardly affected by the shutdown).
Buy the dip, before the EUA approval! Remember those serology tests? AXDX is within weeks, by my estimate, of getting those approved for use. What pharma company doesn't love a nice FDA approval pop? So when will it happen? Some digging: if you check here, you can see that the FDA is pumping out these approvals. Beckman Coulter was a recent company to get the approval, this Monday on June 29, to deliver 30MM tests a month. If you check back on their press releases, they were chirping about this in late April. So this process for them took ~2 months. Going back to AXDX's last conference call (May 8), we can read between the lines:
We recently filed for FDA emergency use authorization for our Pheno respiratory test kit, positioning its benefits for ventilated COVID-19 patients. If approved, this authorization will provide accelerate an avenue to reengage prospective and current customers, obtain useful analytical and clinical data on this new test and help some affected patients.
And in the Q+A:
We have an EUA submitted, as I mentioned, for IgG and IgM combo test. We're also going to be submitting an EUA for individual tests for both IgG and IgM over the next couple of days. The FDA has already come back to us with a few pieces of data that we need to follow up on which is pretty standard. And we're working on that now. And in addition to that, I would say that we are submitting for a 510(k) for the MS-FAST instrument, and we're working on that currently as well with the consultant. Accelerate is the authorized legal agent for BioCheck. And so we're basically spearheading all of the dialogue between the FDA and this opportunity which is a good thing because of the vast experience we have with the FDA already. And so our expectation is, again I guess to be clear, there's been no setback at all relative to our submission. And the new guidance that has come out. And then the last thing I would say is the performance data that we have already submitted with the FDA is excellent data. And it already meets the requirements that they have called out. Our sensitivity and specificity for both the IgG and IgM test or are both very solid. And again, we're continuing to work with the FDA and hope to hear some positive outcomes here over the next couple of weeks.
By the looks of it, from the statements and how press released line up, AXDX was also writing press releases in April about this, they applied to the FDA in late April or early May. Given that Beckman Coulter's process took about 2 months... I think we could be very very close to an announcement, and I'd certainly expect it before 7/17 (cough - calls - cough). [I checked a few other EUA timelines, and ~2 months is about right] That's it. What else do you need? Go buy some AXDX because:
Experienced investor with an awesome track record of winning as a shareholder (and fighting for shareholder value) recently showed showing extreme confidence in the company ($25MM buy)
They are gonna get $ from COVID testing revenues incoming which were not expected in their business plans at all (and this is a relatively low rev company, so the boost will look great)
EUA for the tests < 2 weeks away from being announced - we have evidence from other applications that it should be any time now
Besides all that, everything on track with their normal core business and it shouldn't be much affected by COVD
What's not to like? My positions Jacked to the tits on 10, 12.5, 15, 17.5, and 20 calls expiring in July, Aug, and Nov. Probably $25k across those. Then another $25k or so of shares. I think I'm just over $50k invested.
Ronald Reagan is the 73-year-old Republican candidate and the current President. His running mate is current Vice President George Bush.
Walter Mondale is the 56-year-old Democratic candidate and the previous Vice President. His running mate is US Representative from New York Geraldine Ferraro.
Issues and Background
Within a year of taking office, President Reagan signed comprehensive tax reform legislation that exemplified his economic philosophy. The top marginal income rate was cut from 70% to 50%, and the rate on the lowest taxable bracket was reduced from 14% to 11%. The capital gains tax was reduced from 28% of 20%. Legislation in 1982, prompted by increases in the deficit, prevented the full tax cut aspirations of the 1981 legislation from going into effect. Reagan and his supporters credit his economic policies with the strong economic recovery since the beginning of 1983.
The last couple years have seen very large federal budget deficits, with the 1983 peak at a level unseen since immediately following World War II, even relative to GDP. Mondale has chosen to make this arguably his biggest domestic campaign issue. Mondale has argued that the "question of the deficit and getting interest rates down is the most important domestic problem of our time - nothing else compares with it." He has spoken in stark terms about the alleged stakes, saying:
The President's point that growth will cure the deficit is obviously not the case. The deficit will get worse even with growth. Thus it is a very severe problem that threatens our future, saddles our kids with a with a trillion dollars worth of debt, is making us into a debtor nation, is destroying our position in international commerce, driving up interest rates, and is making the budget increasingly unmanageable.
Further, Mondale has gone further in his gambit on making the deficit an election issue by pledging to raise taxes. In his nomination acceptance speech, Mondale said:
Whoever is inaugurated in January, the American people will have to pay Mr. Reagan's bills. The budget will be squeezed. Taxes will go up. And anyone who says they won't is not telling the truth to the American people. I mean business. By the end of my first term, I will reduce the Reagan budget deficit by two-thirds. Let's tell the truth. That must be done - it must be done. Mr. Reagan will raise taxes, and so will I. He won't tell you. I just did.
Specifically, the Mondale deficit reduction plan calls for $85 billion in new tax revenues and $105 billion in cuts in projected spending. The entirety of the new tax revenue is to be earmarked for a special fund to reduce the deficit. Any further new spending will be "pay as you go," requiring new revenue to cover the spending. The planned spending cuts are mostly decreases in the planned growth of spending, including for the military and Medicare, rather than outright cuts.
According to Mondale campaign advisers, a typical family of four with a gross annual income of $25,000 (OOC: ~$62,000 in 2020 dollars, same format for further parentheticals) will not see their taxes go up. However, by 1989, families making $25,000 to $35,000 (~$62,000 to $86,000) will see a tax increase of about $95 (~$200) families making up to $45,000 (~$111,000) will pay roughly $200 (~$500) more and families making $100,000 (~$250,000) will pay about $2,600 (~$6,400) more.
Republicans have of course criticized the Mondale plan sharply. Vice President Bush called it a "program for failure" that would stall the recovery. Reagan insists that deficit reduction must come through economic growth and reductions in wasteful government spending. Reagan describes a tax increase as a "last resort."
Religion and issues of morality have come up several times during this campaign. President Reagan favors a Constitutional amendment that would permit organized prayers in public schools that students can opt-out of. Mondale opposes the amendment. President Reagan also supports a Constitutional amendment banning abortions except when the life of the mother is at risk. Mondale is personally opposed to abortion but believes it should be a woman's individual choice. Mondale's running mate Geraldine Ferraro has received pushback for her statement that, "the President goes around calling himself a good Christian; I don't for a minute believe it," criticizing Reagan's policies as "unfair" and "discriminatory."
In fall 1983, following an internal power struggle in the country and pleas from other Caribbean nations, the United States invaded Grenada alongside several Caribbean nations. The invasion was successful, resulting in the establishment of a new interim government. Elections are intended to take place in the coming months. The Reagan Administration justified the intervention on the basis of protecting US medical students on the island. The UN General Assembly voted 108 to 9 to call the intervention a "flagrant violation of international law." Mondale raised questions about the invasion early on, but in the past couple months has spoken favorably of it.
The United States along with three European nations introduced a peacekeeping force into Lebanon in 1982, in the broader context of the Lebanese Civil War. US diplomatic and military forces have been the victim of a number of suicide bombings, in particular the 1983 bombings of Beirut barracks, killing 241 US military personnel. Mondale has been sharply critical of Reagan with respect to these bombings, arguing that there was plenty of warning to prevent them. Mondale has further argued that overall US policy in Lebanon has been marked by "unbelievable disorganization." In January, Mondale called for the withdrawal of US marines from Lebanon. Reagan argues that the US presence in Lebanon helped facilitate the withdrawal of Palestinian guerrilla fighters.
At no point in his first term thus far has President Reagan met with his Soviet counterpart, Konstantin Chernenko. Mondale has frequently criticized Reagan for this, and has promised he would hold annual summit meetings with Soviet leaders. Reagan has said that he would like a summit, but needs to feel sure it will produce results before it happens. More broadly, Reagan has described the necessary policy towards the Soviet Union as one of "credible deterrence and peaceful competition," though he has also not held back in his criticism of the Soviet Union, calling it just last year an "evil empire."
In 1979, the Sandinista National Liberation Front in Nicaragua overthrew the Somoza dictatorship and established a new government. Since then, counterrevolutionary forces including former pro-Somoza forces as well as disillusioned former Sandinistas, have engaged in armed conflict against the Sandinista government. Reagan cancelled economic aid to Nicaragua upon taking office, but has since said that there have been attempts to get along with the new government. However, Reagan has been sharply critical of Nicaragua's accused military buildup and "meddling" in El Salvador.
Mondale has criticized Reagan's "failed policies" in Central America and has promised that if elected, he would end all US military exercises in Central America, withdraw combat forces from Honduras, and "end the covert activities directed toward Nicaragua."
A CIA booklet became public this October which has raised questions about the nature of US covert activities in Nicaragua. As reported by the New York Times:
A Central Intelligence Agency document that became public this week tells Nicaraguan rebels how to win popular support and gives advice on political assassination, blackmail and mob violence. The 44-page booklet, titled ''Psychological Operations in Guerrilla Warfare,'' is a primer on insurgency. Most activity of this sort in Nicaragua has been paid for by the United States through the C.I.A. The primer explains how to kidnap and kill officials, blow up public buildings and blackmail ordinary citizens.
Ferraro and her husband have come under intense media scrutiny over their financial history, with accusations ranging from tax avoidance to connections to organized crime, pornography, and gambling. In response, the couple has relented in releasing several years of tax returns, and Ferraro has allowed the media hours of her time to ask questions related to her and her husband's finances. Most accusations against them have proven to be exaggerated, though there are still lingering questions regarding certain accounting errors that were made. For more technical details, see coverage by the New York Times or Washington Post.
Particularly following what some considered to be a sub-par first debate performance, some Democrats are openly raising the question of whether Reagan, 73, is too old to continue serving as President. Asked at a White House event whether age should be considered a legitimate issue, Reagan said jokingly of Mondale, "I'll challenge him to an arm-wrestle any time." Reagan's more vigorous second debate performance has led to a diminishing of the age discussion.
In June 1981, the Associated Press and Los Angeles Times reported on a rare lung infection in 5 young previously healthy gay men in Los Angeles. Since then, over 6,000 cases of "acquired immune deficiency syndrome" (AIDS) have been reported to public health officials. In April of this year, the cause of the disease was discovered, a retrovirus known as HTLV-III. According to the CDC, "most cases have been reported among homosexual men with multiple sexual partners, abusers of intravenous drugs, and Haitians, especially those who have entered the country within the past few years." The case fatality rate is extremely high. Scientists say the virus is mainly spread through sexual contact. There were two major developments just recently in October. First, the New York Times reported that saliva may be a possible source of transmission, though it remains unlikely that it is a "key mode of spread." Second, under pressure from Mayor Dianne Feinstein, San Francisco public health officials ordered a number of bathhouses and sex clubs geared towards homosexual men closed. Officials at the Department of Health and Human Services argue that this disease has become a top research priority for them, and that they expect to spend many millions of dollars on research grants and other efforts. However, some groups like the National Gay Task Force have criticized the government sharply and say that not nearly enough is being done. Many criticisms of the government and other institutions and groups of people are covered in the essay from last year famous in the gay community, "1,112 and Counting" by Larry Kramer, published in the New York Native. Neither Reagan nor Mondale have spoken of this disease on the campaign trail. OOC Note: There is no indication that AIDS was an issue in the presidential election. Even gay newspapers from this time did not relate the crisis much if at all to the presidential election. To the extent that government policy was discussed, it was often local policy. Why mention it then? Well, it's a similar situation to Japanese internment and the 1944 election. I know some of you will bring this up no matter what, understandably, and so I'd like to at the very least calibrate the discussion to the year of the election with proper context and background.
Platforms (Important note if this is influencing your vote: These are just excerpts, not everything is included and inclusion of a point in one set of excerpts does NOT mean the other party took the opposing stance or didn't mention it; also, especially in the modern era, a Presidential candidate may disagree with the party platform) Read the full 1984 Republican platform here. 10 Excerpts:
"We reaffirm our conviction that State and local governments closest to the people are the best and most efficient"
"The Republican Party pledges to continue our efforts to lower tax rates, change and modernize the tax system, and eliminate the incentive-destroying effects of graduated tax rates ... We therefore support tax reform that will lead to a fair and simple tax system and believe a modified flat tax—with specific exemptions for such items as mortgage interest—is a most promising approach"
"The President is denied proper control over the federal budget ... To remedy this, we support enhanced authority to prevent wasteful spending, including a line-item veto"
"We need coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, timely information about Fed decisions, and an end to the uncertainties people face in obtaining money and credit ... The Gold Standard may be a useful mechanism for realizing the Federal Reserve's determination to adopt monetary policies needed to sustain price stability"
"The greatest danger today to our international trade is a growing protectionist sentiment"
"The Republican Party has deep concern about gratuitous sex and violence in the entertainment media, both of which contribute to the problem of crime against children and women"
"We Republicans emphasize that there is a profound moral difference between the actions and ideals of Marxist-Leninist regimes and those of democratic governments, and we reject the notions of guilt and apology which animate so much of the foreign policy of the Democratic Party"
"Stable and peaceful relations with the Soviet Union are possible and desirable, but they depend upon the credibility of American strength and determination"
"We ... reaffirm our support for a human life amendment to the Constitution, and we endorse legislation to make clear that the Fourteenth Amendment's protections apply to unborn children"
"We affirm our country's absolute fight to control its borders ... Those desiring to enter must comply with our immigration laws ... Failure to do so not only is an offense to the American people but is fundamentally unjust to those in foreign lands patiently waiting for legal entry ... We will preserve the principle of family reunification"
"Instead of runaway deficits, a Democratic Administration will pursue overall economic policies that sharply reduce deficits, down interest rates, free savings for private investment, prevent another explosion of inflation and put the dollar on a competitive footing"
"We will pursue international negotiations to open markets and eliminate trade restrictions, recognizing that the growth and stability of the Third World depends on its ability to sell its products in international markets"
"The Environmental Protection Agency should receive a budget that exceeds in real dollars the agency's purchasing power when President Reagan took office, since the agency's workload has almost doubled in recent years"
"After four years in which the roll of dishonor in the Administration has grown weekly and monthly—from Richard Allen to Rita Lavelle, from Thomas Reed to James Watt—it is time for an end to the embarrassment of Republican cronyism and malfeasance"
"Violent acts of bigotry, hatred and extremism aimed at women, racial, ethnic and religious minorities, and gay men and lesbians have become an alarmingly common phenomenon ... A Democratic Administration will work vigorously to address, document, and end all such violence"
"In the year made famous by George Orwell, we can see the realization of many of his grimmest prophecies in the totalitarian Soviet state, which has amassed an arsenal of weapons far beyond its defensive needs"
"Sadly, Mr. Reagan has opted for the all too frequent American response to the unrest that has characterized Central America-military assistance ... Over the past 100 years, Panama. Nicaragua, and Honduras have all been occupied by U.S. forces in an effort to suppress indigenous revolutionary movements"
"A Democratic President will pursue a foreign policy that advances basic civil and political rights—freedom of speech, association, thought and religion, the right to leave, freedom of the integrity of the person, and the prohibition of torture, arbitrary detention and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment—and that seeks as well to attain basic, economic, social, and cultural rights"
"We support tough restraints on the manufacture, transportation, and sale of snub-nosed handguns, which have no legitimate sporting use and are used in a high proportion of violent crimes"
"...the Reagan Administration has acted as if deficits do not count ... The deficits are huge and are expected to get larger—and they are a major negative factor in everything from high interest rates to the third world debt crisis"
I just got approved for futures, but when I go to place a buy order, I am getting an error message saying that it would bring my buying power to below zero. Is this because I only recently transferred funds into the account. Is the futures buying power the same as the options buying power? I can already trade stocks.
Intro When it comes to building a portfolio of SWAN (sleep well at night) stocks for the long term, HSY is a layup. In the world of stock investing, HSY is an ideal stock for beginners and seasoned investors alike because of its relatively simple business model and its ability to generate consistent returns. The business itself is very straightforward. HSY owns some very recognizable brands such as Reese's and KitKat (HSY owns the rights to KitKat in the US). On average they manage to sell more candy than the year before and with it also raise prices at a rate higher than inflation. As the bulk of their profits are earned in the US, their income statements (reported in USD) are an accurate reflection of what they actually earned. Compare that to other excellent companies like CL, KO etc which are a little harder to evaluate as they earn most of their profits overseas and you have to factor in currency fluctuations to get the real picture (their annual reports usually do a good job of it though). As Peter Lynch said, "Invest in what you know" and it's safe to say most Americans have consumed a Hershey's product at some point in their lives. Heck, you can even use the excuse of "market research" to buy some Reese's peanut butter cups the next time you go to the store. $$$ Morningstar does a great job putting together the financials. Check with your local library to see if you can get access to Morningstar or Value Line. It's very useful to anyone looking to research individual stocks. While paying for a subscription yourself can cost several hundreds of dollars annually, most public libraries in the US give you access to one or both of those services for free. I'll try to sum up the key metrics shared in the link above (anyone can view that page even without a subscription) Over the last 10 years Net sales growth of ~4% (What's even more impressive is that most of it was achieved with volume increases and pricing power alone. Acquisitions had little to do with it) EPS growth 8-10% Div yield 2-3% (The payout ratio stays around 50% which means you also see dividend growth that's 8-10%) They buy back roughly 1% of outstanding shares each year. Just like that you get 11-13% CAGR (excluding PE compression/expansion). ROIC consistently in the high teens to 20+ (consumer staples usually average in the mid teens) Operating margin has increased from 17.4% to 21% (PEP for example was around 15% last year) To check the quality of the balance sheet, we look at the interest coverage ratio and Net Debt w.r.t Operating Profits. With capital light businesses like HSY, their ability to grow profits/free cash flow is a better indicator of financial strength than shareholder equity. Interest coverage ratio (Interest expense/EBIT) ~ 10 (A double digit value for a consumer staples company is considered very safe) Net Debt/EBIT ~ 2.5 (Anything less than 3 for a consumer staples company is considered very safe) Stock Performance HSY has historically fluctuated between a PE of 30 (overpriced) to a PE of 20 (a bargain). Every once in a blue moon the PE dips below 20 and the div yield approaches 3% at which point it becomes a screaming bargain. Barring a total economic collapse or horrendous mismanagement, it's very unlikely you'll see HSY trading at a PE of 15. I would say a PE of 23-25 is a fair price for a wonderful company. As with any investment, the price you pay affects future returns. To get the real picture of returns generated by HSY, one needs to look at a full business cycle as consumer staples generally tend to outperform during a recession. The absolute worst time to buy HSY in the last 15 years would have been in early 2005 when the PE was over 30 and the dividend yield was below 1.5%. A $10,000 investment with dividends reinvested in April 2005 would result in a present value of $34,863 with a CAGR of 8.49% (underperformed the SPY which returned $37,404 at 8.98%). Buying it at its lows in early 2008 when the PE was under 20 and the dividend yield was over 3%, A $10,000 investment with dividends reinvested in January 2008 would result in a present value of $50,619 with a CAGR of 13.76% (outperformed the SPY which returned $28,659 at 8.73%). Realistically speaking, for an investor who DCAs into this stock, their returns would've been somewhere between 8.5% - 13.8%. HSY is not a stock that you can expect 20%+ CAGR from, but with some luck compounding at 11-12% can build significant wealth (and potentially even outperform SPY). Risks As far as stocks go, HSY has to be one of the safest investments out there. The company is very conservatively run as the Hershey Trust owns roughly 40% of the company (but over 80% voting rights) and uses the dividends to fund a school for underprivileged children. The dividend is sacrosanct and HSY management is less likely to jeopardize the dividend in search of growth. Consumer staples as a business also face less disruption than other industries. Profits are consistent and the business requires fairly little reinvestment. Candy, alcohol and tobacco are centuries old and consumer tastes change fairly slowly which gives companies plenty of time to adapt. MSFT would go out of business if they were still selling the same OS they made in the 90s. HSY on the other hand is more or less still selling the same candy it was 30-40 years ago. That being said, past performance is no guarantee of future results. So let's address some realistic risks - Ruining the quality of the product due to cost cuts in search of short term profits. Irene Rosenfeld at Mondelez did this to the Cadbury Creme Egg, which didn't bode well for the stock. A big part of the reason why I'm willing to pay a premium for a Reese's Peanut Butter Cup (over some generic brand candy) is because of the taste. HSY would lose their hard earned market share and goodwill in search of short term gains. - Compromising the balance sheet for a bad acquisition. KHC is a good example of this. The 3G method involves slashing costs and levering up the balance sheet to acquire more businesses. Of course, if the acquisition doesn't pan out the stock gets punished accordingly. HSY has tried to build their international presence through acquisitions and it hasn't panned out well so far. Lately they've started diversifying into savory snacks. However, these tend to be pretty small in nature. - A sugar tax to combat obesity. I don't think it'll hurt the underlying business too much, but HSY might start trading at a lower earnings multiple. - E-commerce might affect HSY a bit. Outside of a few holidays the bulk of candy sales come from impulse purchases a consumer makes at the checkout counter at the store. It usually isn't something a person puts on their shopping list. I think with some proactive management, HSY can get around that by working with vendors to advertise their products while checking out online (much like how pizza joints upsell soda/breadsticks etc at checkout time). Conclusion If you've made it this far, I thank you for reading this post. I mostly wrote this for people who might be looking into buying individual stocks. I think HSY is an excellent stock for those looking for an above average dividend yield and dividend growth. Buffet often speaks fondly of his See's Candies investment. Much like his own investment, with some luck HSY's dividends alone can pay you back your initial investment and then some over an investing lifetime. As always, sticking with a low cost index fund is a sound strategy. Even a stock like HSY requires a few hours of work each year. TLDR: HSY good. VTSAX good.
Futures Margin Requirements For all intents and purposes, margin is the key facilitator of trade on the futures markets. Every contract that is bought or sold is done so using financial leverage: The trader is only required to put up a small amount of capital to open and maintain a new position. Margin is a critical concept for people trading commodity futures and derivatives in all asset classes. Futures margin is a good-faith deposit or an amount of capital one needs to post or deposit to control a futures contract. If the margin call is. (FINRA) margin rules require that broker-dealer to impose special margin requirements on the customer's day trading accounts. What is a “pattern day. Margin trading works to amplify gains and losses. Day traders often make multiple transactions per day to profit off relatively small fluctuations in the rrequirements traded. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein. By trading on margin (sometimes also referred to as “leveraging” or “gearing”) in your futures account, you acknowledge and agree that TradeStation may, in its sole discretion, and without prior notice to you, and at any time, impose a margin call and liquidate your account, in whole or part, to meet such margin call and otherwise
Understanding the mechanics of margin for futures. Initial and maintenance margin.Created by Sal Khan. Watch the next lesson: https://www.khanacademy.org/eco... Charlie introduces the Futures Market, the goal of Futures Contracts, and compares it to equity trading. He also talks about how margin requirements are handled in the futures market as well as ... Margin requirements in Options Trading - Let's talk about options by THE OPTION SCHOOL There have been instances when traders are charged different margins i... This video reviews common questions for futures traders including the role of commission in overall trading costs, the impact of leverage on margin requirements, and identifying a risk tolerance ... Hi Friends, I have explained about the new margin requirements changes from SEBI in this video. These changes will be active from June 1st, 2020. If you are ...